* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 67 74 78 84 90 90 80 75 70 68 63 V (KT) LAND 55 60 67 70 59 62 68 68 58 52 48 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 65 57 57 58 54 49 45 43 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 7 14 23 27 38 38 37 31 34 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 6 5 3 4 4 7 1 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 244 211 187 213 224 217 202 184 210 215 228 224 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 161 161 149 142 136 133 127 121 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 156 155 155 139 125 117 116 115 107 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -50.2 -49.0 -49.1 -49.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 83 81 84 82 81 69 58 47 56 63 68 58 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 26 29 33 34 35 42 46 42 43 45 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 144 154 171 199 217 238 237 252 244 240 235 252 244 200 MB DIV 132 177 223 189 176 179 170 83 33 43 104 123 50 700-850 TADV 11 19 13 17 34 21 13 -6 -2 -4 -10 -21 -6 LAND (KM) 222 111 2 89 -44 175 357 351 428 651 633 731 848 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.3 23.1 25.2 26.5 27.5 29.1 31.7 32.9 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 76.9 76.6 76.6 76.5 76.6 76.7 76.6 75.8 73.9 70.7 68.6 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 12 8 6 9 15 15 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 121 87 55 96 75 46 55 46 37 13 5 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 20. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 23. 29. 35. 35. 25. 20. 15. 13. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 179.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 63% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 6( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)