* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 50 51 52 49 46 46 50 54 56 52 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 50 51 52 49 46 46 50 54 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 48 48 45 41 39 38 40 44 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 26 27 28 43 41 57 40 30 14 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 4 9 8 5 2 -5 0 -3 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 215 203 214 230 239 234 246 249 241 227 296 254 263 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.4 23.6 22.6 21.6 20.7 20.0 19.2 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 115 112 108 102 96 91 86 82 79 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 104 101 98 91 86 81 77 74 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 -55.9 -56.7 -57.5 -59.0 -60.0 -59.8 -59.6 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 36 33 30 29 29 32 38 48 56 48 51 44 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 10 10 11 13 15 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -12 -12 -24 -29 -35 -20 15 68 87 69 12 -40 200 MB DIV 49 34 74 90 62 41 98 83 87 95 60 21 14 700-850 TADV 9 -1 -6 2 11 -6 4 0 14 9 -6 3 6 LAND (KM) 2007 2163 2156 2144 2140 2158 2169 2127 2026 1939 1733 1516 1280 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.3 30.4 31.8 33.7 36.2 38.2 39.9 41.4 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 47.2 45.7 44.2 42.6 39.6 36.8 34.7 33.2 31.5 29.5 27.4 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -18. -22. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 9. 6. 6. 10. 14. 16. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)