* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 77 82 89 93 90 83 77 69 64 54 V (KT) LAND 60 58 69 58 62 69 72 69 62 56 49 43 33 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 66 58 58 63 63 59 53 49 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 14 18 19 35 33 39 27 39 32 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 4 2 1 3 9 5 -1 4 3 10 4 SHEAR DIR 232 198 191 223 224 206 195 181 213 213 205 210 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 155 146 137 132 129 125 122 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 156 153 146 134 120 112 110 109 106 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -50.5 -50.0 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 81 75 65 56 50 54 53 46 40 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 29 32 32 34 39 44 46 44 44 43 45 42 850 MB ENV VOR 147 164 193 211 209 236 230 243 233 244 250 252 262 200 MB DIV 186 224 200 160 184 175 150 79 37 41 89 30 2 700-850 TADV 14 15 12 31 23 13 7 1 4 -12 -11 21 24 LAND (KM) 126 0 86 -61 67 310 361 373 454 571 498 542 619 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.5 21.8 24.4 26.5 27.7 28.5 29.8 31.9 33.0 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 76.7 76.5 76.4 76.3 76.4 76.5 76.4 75.8 74.5 72.4 70.8 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 13 12 8 5 7 11 11 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 91 62 98 75 61 56 42 36 40 9 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 18. 16. 16. 15. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 17. 22. 29. 33. 30. 23. 17. 9. 4. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 190.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 68% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)