* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 55 57 55 54 49 45 45 50 49 45 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 55 57 55 54 49 45 45 50 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 50 50 49 44 40 37 37 40 44 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 32 29 36 39 52 47 60 49 23 25 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 11 8 4 0 -1 -9 -9 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 202 205 209 222 222 237 238 248 245 259 265 247 244 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.3 23.7 22.8 21.9 21.0 20.5 19.7 19.0 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 109 105 102 98 92 87 83 81 77 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 98 94 91 88 82 78 74 72 70 68 68 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -57.6 -58.4 -59.9 -60.0 -60.0 -59.2 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 35 31 28 30 32 31 37 44 48 48 47 43 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 14 16 14 14 13 11 11 16 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -24 -36 -28 -35 -8 49 78 47 33 -13 -70 200 MB DIV 35 61 90 72 85 75 57 52 54 50 35 22 14 700-850 TADV 2 -5 4 0 -4 5 -5 5 15 8 7 12 33 LAND (KM) 2149 2126 2115 2122 2138 2212 1990 1971 1989 1897 1800 1673 1482 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.5 32.9 35.0 37.5 39.5 41.2 42.5 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 44.7 43.0 41.4 39.8 36.5 33.5 32.2 32.4 31.9 30.8 29.6 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -18. -25. -27. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 30. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. 1. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 9. 4. 0. 0. 5. 4. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)