* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 84 87 93 92 90 81 72 68 59 53 V (KT) LAND 70 73 61 63 67 72 71 69 60 51 47 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 65 64 67 70 68 60 54 48 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 19 22 25 29 42 39 36 43 38 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 -1 4 13 3 0 1 4 2 8 SHEAR DIR 233 200 225 223 220 210 189 186 212 207 204 185 184 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 155 151 142 137 133 127 124 124 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 155 146 139 127 118 114 110 108 107 102 103 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -50.4 -49.3 -49.6 -49.0 -49.3 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 83 84 78 74 66 55 52 59 54 51 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 28 28 32 40 43 47 43 43 46 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 167 190 211 217 230 231 260 256 232 227 236 230 272 200 MB DIV 221 191 172 170 176 204 137 63 55 74 110 65 35 700-850 TADV 14 11 38 38 40 22 -7 -8 -6 -18 -19 -13 0 LAND (KM) 16 88 -55 55 186 375 317 375 512 506 432 482 567 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 19.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 25.3 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.8 33.0 34.7 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 76.6 76.5 76.5 76.4 76.5 76.9 76.5 75.4 73.9 72.2 70.7 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 10 7 7 9 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 69 96 75 64 46 53 40 35 30 9 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 9. 13. 17. 13. 13. 16. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 23. 22. 20. 11. 2. -2. -11. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 186.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 56% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 3( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 0( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)