* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 51 52 49 47 42 40 40 38 40 39 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 51 52 49 47 42 40 40 38 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 46 45 41 38 37 38 40 42 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 32 31 40 43 52 49 60 45 40 25 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 5 0 -6 -5 -15 -6 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 211 210 211 211 221 244 251 255 249 264 274 264 280 SST (C) 25.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.5 22.7 21.8 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 106 103 100 97 92 86 82 80 79 77 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 97 94 91 88 82 77 74 72 71 69 69 68 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.5 -56.6 -57.4 -58.5 -59.7 -60.1 -61.2 -60.2 -59.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 32 30 31 32 33 35 33 39 43 42 41 31 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 10 9 8 8 10 11 17 22 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -31 -39 -33 -45 -33 -10 4 24 33 31 32 -1 200 MB DIV 52 68 58 71 82 53 32 17 54 61 33 -29 -41 700-850 TADV -2 5 0 8 3 8 0 13 12 0 -9 -17 -45 LAND (KM) 2115 2118 2134 2168 2159 1926 1835 1767 1628 1482 1308 1120 902 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.9 30.5 31.2 31.8 33.2 34.9 36.6 38.1 39.5 40.7 41.6 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 41.8 39.9 38.0 36.0 32.6 30.6 29.1 27.9 26.4 24.6 22.6 20.1 STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 18 18 17 14 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 24 CX,CY: 22/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -16. -24. -29. -32. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 29. 34. 36. 37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. 2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)