* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 87 90 90 88 80 80 71 64 61 53 47 V (KT) LAND 80 70 72 74 74 72 64 64 55 48 45 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 73 76 76 72 64 55 49 46 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 23 26 37 41 48 37 42 42 36 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 4 7 9 5 0 0 1 8 4 8 SHEAR DIR 211 222 244 230 214 201 191 192 211 194 191 194 187 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 155 150 144 139 134 131 127 126 123 122 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 149 141 131 121 115 113 110 109 105 101 92 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -49.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 86 84 80 72 68 60 52 55 59 53 47 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 28 33 37 40 40 44 42 42 45 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 187 200 208 221 215 225 224 221 217 230 225 252 258 200 MB DIV 176 151 170 180 161 162 92 83 37 69 85 21 42 700-850 TADV 15 30 53 51 41 30 -3 2 -10 -24 -28 0 0 LAND (KM) 54 -38 74 208 338 313 299 397 471 406 422 467 418 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.3 24.7 26.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 32.3 34.4 36.1 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.3 76.1 76.3 76.4 77.0 77.2 76.6 75.0 73.3 71.5 70.6 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 15 12 8 7 8 11 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 92 59 45 56 22 40 41 9 8 0 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -23. -24. -24. -25. -24. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 12. 12. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 0. 0. -9. -16. -19. -27. -33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 167.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 5( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)