* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 45 41 35 35 37 34 29 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 45 41 35 35 37 34 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 41 37 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 35 37 45 49 43 60 69 66 60 50 39 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 0 0 -9 -17 -12 -8 0 19 6 SHEAR DIR 212 214 217 225 239 248 265 262 276 273 265 276 280 SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.3 21.8 21.5 21.0 20.0 19.4 19.0 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 100 98 95 90 87 85 83 80 78 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 91 89 86 81 77 76 75 72 70 70 68 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.7 -58.1 -58.8 -60.0 -60.5 -61.1 -60.5 -56.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 30 31 32 33 33 31 33 42 41 37 39 47 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 9 7 6 10 15 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -40 -50 -49 -38 -23 8 26 18 39 114 126 200 MB DIV 61 59 55 76 58 17 11 27 47 50 42 -28 -8 700-850 TADV 3 0 16 -1 4 1 6 6 -14 8 26 -4 -16 LAND (KM) 2137 2165 2205 2109 1964 1718 1613 1420 1162 942 715 476 226 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.9 35.4 36.9 38.5 39.9 41.0 41.8 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 39.5 37.5 35.5 33.5 29.8 27.6 25.2 22.6 20.1 17.4 14.7 11.8 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 18 17 15 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -21. -31. -38. -42. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 19. 25. 30. 35. 36. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -10. -10. -8. -11. -16. -23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)