* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * SANDY AL182012 10/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 101 101 98 90 81 79 70 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 95 96 98 97 94 87 77 75 66 62 57 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 96 95 92 81 69 59 52 49 48 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 33 31 44 45 44 48 27 27 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 6 15 10 1 -1 -5 4 9 5 9 SHEAR DIR 226 236 237 219 205 197 198 207 214 195 204 202 188 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 151 148 141 137 133 127 122 119 120 124 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 150 142 136 125 119 115 111 106 101 101 104 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 -50.3 -50.6 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 85 82 76 71 64 56 47 56 60 51 44 52 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 32 36 37 40 41 44 42 42 43 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR 195 201 212 221 213 242 226 206 212 234 245 292 318 200 MB DIV 158 172 190 165 169 134 108 67 59 102 65 37 38 700-850 TADV 28 46 50 42 43 5 -1 -10 -16 -34 6 25 27 LAND (KM) -23 53 208 319 412 336 351 531 516 512 472 504 424 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.9 28.2 29.7 31.2 32.7 34.2 36.0 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.9 75.8 76.0 76.1 76.7 76.8 75.3 73.0 71.4 71.0 70.2 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 10 7 8 11 11 9 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 91 62 51 54 49 42 36 16 8 0 0 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 14 CX,CY: 2/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -30. -30. -29. -25. -23. -21. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 11. 15. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 3. -5. -14. -16. -25. -30. -35. -38. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 170.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/25/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 21( 21) 16( 34) 10( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)