* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 49 48 43 40 45 47 44 45 39 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 49 48 43 40 45 47 44 45 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 36 36 38 41 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 36 42 46 42 55 64 68 29 28 38 56 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 1 -9 -9 -18 0 0 0 -8 3 SHEAR DIR 215 217 225 236 246 258 262 246 252 269 277 266 279 SST (C) 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.3 20.4 19.7 19.2 18.8 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 97 94 92 88 85 83 80 77 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 91 88 85 82 78 75 74 71 69 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.9 -57.3 -58.4 -59.6 -59.6 -60.7 -59.6 -58.5 -56.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 29 30 30 30 34 33 46 52 50 48 47 37 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 10 9 8 10 16 17 18 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -42 -51 -49 -45 -34 -1 55 73 64 34 27 -28 200 MB DIV 56 50 68 64 55 22 33 83 85 51 27 14 -2 700-850 TADV 0 8 0 0 12 1 10 9 11 0 -9 -35 -56 LAND (KM) 2172 2219 2081 1962 1844 1690 1626 1630 1606 1547 1421 1277 1072 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.3 32.9 34.0 35.0 36.5 38.4 40.1 41.3 42.3 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 37.2 35.2 33.5 31.8 29.4 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.3 26.2 24.7 22.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 16 14 9 7 9 9 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 23 CX,CY: 22/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -22. -28. -31. -32. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 26. 32. 35. 35. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 4. 4. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -5. 0. 2. -1. 0. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/25/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)