* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 86 83 73 71 67 62 63 61 60 56 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 86 83 73 71 67 62 63 61 60 56 V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 89 85 80 69 59 51 47 47 49 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 32 37 37 54 43 40 37 23 18 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 8 12 7 4 1 -1 -5 5 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 244 227 208 214 202 192 192 215 221 189 218 197 208 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.8 26.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 147 142 139 134 128 124 122 119 121 122 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 134 127 121 116 111 107 106 101 101 100 85 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 -52.2 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 84 79 74 68 61 59 53 52 60 52 41 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 31 34 34 37 39 44 43 41 44 44 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 190 201 211 219 227 237 229 205 230 225 279 320 361 200 MB DIV 156 182 170 183 187 84 119 62 60 85 87 11 43 700-850 TADV 61 52 38 47 16 7 -4 -6 -10 -18 21 0 75 LAND (KM) 67 213 348 418 406 377 493 538 491 504 563 507 340 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 23.0 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.3 28.8 30.3 31.9 33.6 35.2 36.7 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.8 76.1 76.3 75.5 74.3 72.5 70.9 69.7 69.7 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 8 7 9 10 11 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 41 49 49 42 37 35 6 0 1 0 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -23. -29. -32. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -15. -20. -30. -34. -33. -30. -26. -23. -20. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 14. 11. 14. 14. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -17. -19. -23. -28. -27. -29. -30. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 175.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 9( 29) 4( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)