* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 38 37 35 31 31 34 36 27 28 22 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 38 37 35 31 31 34 36 27 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 33 31 30 29 28 30 32 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 42 46 42 42 68 82 60 31 34 58 62 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 0 0 -16 -25 -12 1 1 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 218 231 238 247 246 269 255 247 243 279 286 276 288 SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.1 21.6 21.0 20.4 20.0 19.5 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 101 98 96 93 91 88 86 84 81 79 78 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 89 86 84 81 78 75 74 72 70 69 69 69 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -57.4 -58.1 -59.2 -59.4 -59.6 -59.0 -57.6 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 29 30 31 35 32 38 54 57 52 58 50 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 12 10 9 8 7 12 15 18 14 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -49 -51 -42 -40 -32 41 78 95 52 56 63 8 200 MB DIV 50 84 52 44 49 14 67 83 86 41 38 37 -15 700-850 TADV 1 4 9 8 2 6 13 23 34 18 -22 -34 -14 LAND (KM) 2244 2084 1943 1837 1732 1596 1587 1605 1527 1436 1309 1161 955 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.7 33.6 34.7 36.0 37.5 38.8 39.9 40.7 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 35.4 33.5 32.1 30.6 28.5 27.7 27.1 26.6 25.8 24.4 22.8 20.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 13 11 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 20 CX,CY: 19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -12. -25. -32. -36. -41. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 26. 30. 33. 32. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -3. 1. 3. -1. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -9. -6. -4. -13. -12. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)