* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TONY AL192012 10/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 24 24 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 24 24 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 26 24 23 21 21 23 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 45 45 41 52 73 80 51 31 54 84 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 2 -6 -18 -22 -10 3 -2 -20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 241 247 247 264 265 256 255 257 291 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.9 23.0 22.7 22.1 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 97 95 93 91 90 91 91 89 86 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 88 85 83 81 79 79 79 77 75 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.6 -57.1 -57.6 -58.9 -58.8 -60.3 -59.3 -59.0 -56.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 31 36 36 40 45 54 58 53 54 56 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 13 15 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -52 -44 -42 -47 -15 27 56 84 52 64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 54 36 32 38 11 54 82 43 -21 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 7 6 3 7 6 1 -6 0 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2047 1898 1749 1646 1543 1438 1323 1247 1162 1010 860 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.4 34.2 35.0 35.8 36.8 37.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 33.2 31.2 29.8 28.4 26.7 24.8 23.2 21.8 20.4 19.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 12 10 8 8 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 19 CX,CY: 18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 0. -10. -25. -33. -40. -49. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 30. 32. 33. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -3. 0. -5. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -18. -30. -33. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192012 TONY 10/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192012 TONY 10/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)