* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 71 64 59 58 58 57 56 57 52 36 V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 71 64 59 58 58 57 56 57 42 31 V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 78 73 68 60 55 53 53 53 51 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 41 44 50 50 48 40 39 37 25 34 33 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 6 3 2 -4 -5 -5 -3 6 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 218 217 208 205 196 196 200 203 197 182 140 124 75 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.1 25.8 19.7 17.2 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 137 135 134 132 128 127 125 113 79 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 120 115 114 114 110 108 106 97 71 65 63 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -51.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -48.9 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 64 59 58 59 55 52 56 58 51 60 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 32 35 37 36 41 43 46 46 47 55 56 47 850 MB ENV VOR 190 202 212 225 227 217 215 226 239 288 345 403 439 200 MB DIV 177 170 178 140 79 112 127 57 80 72 72 64 81 700-850 TADV 41 50 43 30 3 -11 -11 -38 -19 19 -29 40 -15 LAND (KM) 380 389 327 297 277 373 439 373 353 309 123 -44 -150 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.9 30.6 32.1 33.8 36.0 38.7 40.2 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.8 76.3 76.8 77.1 77.4 76.8 75.6 74.1 72.6 72.4 73.3 74.6 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 5 5 8 10 10 10 13 11 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 41 42 43 41 9 4 17 23 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -22. -26. -31. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -19. -26. -35. -36. -35. -32. -29. -28. -26. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 16. 16. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -21. -26. -27. -27. -28. -29. -28. -33. -49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/26/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)