* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 65 60 55 53 54 55 57 59 58 52 39 V (KT) LAND 75 69 65 60 55 53 54 55 57 59 58 42 31 V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 65 61 57 52 50 50 51 50 46 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 44 46 48 54 37 36 34 29 36 25 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 7 -5 -5 -5 5 12 6 10 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 219 211 200 188 195 201 218 201 182 163 160 143 129 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.2 26.8 24.9 20.9 17.2 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 134 134 131 126 127 122 104 82 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 117 114 115 114 109 109 103 87 73 68 66 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -49.3 -49.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 61 56 57 53 51 53 54 47 50 55 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 37 38 37 40 41 42 44 48 53 52 43 850 MB ENV VOR 189 211 228 232 213 218 216 230 242 291 329 373 355 200 MB DIV 167 198 141 100 67 113 83 77 90 81 22 74 37 700-850 TADV 27 31 20 -14 -9 1 -6 3 4 -1 10 12 -26 LAND (KM) 369 318 267 267 278 423 454 369 344 306 158 -67 -324 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.0 29.5 31.0 32.8 34.9 36.7 38.0 39.6 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.0 77.4 77.5 77.5 76.4 74.7 73.3 72.2 72.3 73.3 75.4 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 7 10 11 11 10 8 9 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 26 32 45 42 33 3 4 0 29 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -22. -29. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 15. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 26. 27. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -21. -20. -18. -16. -17. -22. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/26/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 2( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)