* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 52 49 47 46 44 43 40 38 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 52 49 47 46 44 43 40 33 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 57 54 51 47 45 45 44 41 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 50 52 45 39 35 28 26 37 32 31 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 0 0 -4 2 18 10 7 5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 209 198 203 192 184 219 193 169 154 162 124 105 104 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 23.8 19.2 16.8 16.4 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 131 129 126 125 123 97 76 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 115 113 112 109 107 103 83 69 65 63 62 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -51.3 -50.1 -50.7 -50.5 -49.3 -49.0 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 55 54 54 55 44 51 53 59 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 37 36 41 41 42 44 43 47 49 53 40 29 850 MB ENV VOR 224 232 212 208 214 208 225 269 311 340 366 365 332 200 MB DIV 148 108 94 94 96 106 47 89 77 29 79 39 16 700-850 TADV 18 0 -3 -2 -12 9 -2 -2 -8 -5 13 -26 -31 LAND (KM) 297 307 328 401 463 435 403 362 256 61 -88 -224 -292 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.6 31.3 33.0 34.9 36.9 38.4 39.4 40.1 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.1 77.0 76.5 76.0 74.4 72.6 72.0 72.8 74.3 76.2 77.5 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 36 39 27 1 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 7. 9. 12. 0. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -25. -27. -42. -55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)