* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 57 56 55 52 53 53 50 32 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 57 56 55 52 53 53 50 32 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 60 57 55 52 51 51 49 44 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 47 40 41 38 36 30 21 21 36 16 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 -5 -4 -2 1 12 12 3 -1 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 198 200 186 183 189 216 178 157 162 136 78 179 147 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 23.3 18.3 17.0 16.3 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 130 127 126 124 122 93 75 71 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 113 110 109 106 102 81 70 66 64 66 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.9 -49.2 -47.9 -48.7 -49.5 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 50 48 56 49 42 47 46 61 65 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 37 40 43 46 46 45 46 50 54 41 28 20 850 MB ENV VOR 235 223 220 215 223 219 244 275 312 392 369 328 284 200 MB DIV 97 98 116 124 115 41 65 48 34 68 25 13 0 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -14 5 -16 36 18 43 19 -8 0 LAND (KM) 290 322 360 450 492 419 402 413 256 39 -258 -300 -145 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.5 30.2 31.9 33.8 35.7 37.6 38.8 39.5 40.3 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.1 76.9 76.1 75.3 73.6 72.0 71.3 72.3 74.7 78.3 78.4 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 12 11 9 10 13 8 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 34 28 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -16. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 12. 15. 2. -9. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -12. -12. -14. -33. -47. -59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)