* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 62 62 63 62 63 50 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 62 62 63 62 63 34 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 64 63 63 62 55 33 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 42 39 32 31 27 16 26 32 12 11 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -10 -6 -3 -2 2 12 7 1 2 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 195 197 200 211 219 187 147 137 94 12 243 143 141 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 24.7 18.3 16.2 15.4 15.4 14.7 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 126 126 125 104 75 70 65 66 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 110 108 109 107 90 69 65 61 62 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -48.0 -48.0 -48.0 -49.5 -49.8 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 53 53 48 45 53 67 75 80 78 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 41 45 42 43 45 46 52 47 32 23 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 218 207 215 213 220 252 311 378 424 391 339 294 265 200 MB DIV 112 106 70 91 70 93 52 53 118 9 27 14 18 700-850 TADV -4 -12 -15 -12 0 -14 31 18 -9 -1 -4 8 2 LAND (KM) 372 458 473 441 405 380 303 37 -221 -355 -278 -346 -519 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.6 30.4 31.2 32.0 34.1 36.9 39.0 40.4 41.2 41.5 42.5 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.1 75.3 74.5 73.7 72.1 72.2 74.3 77.1 78.3 77.1 77.3 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 9 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 17 0 0 0 2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -9. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 5. -9. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -15. -36. -48. -56. -62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/27/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)