* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 61 62 63 59 53 34 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 61 62 63 59 46 32 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 63 62 62 60 45 31 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 41 33 29 22 18 23 31 14 13 27 27 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -1 -2 3 8 -2 0 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 204 206 205 205 202 183 129 136 54 257 178 137 103 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 22.9 17.5 16.2 15.7 16.1 14.7 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 126 125 122 92 73 69 67 68 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 108 109 107 104 81 68 64 62 64 65 65 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -48.8 -47.6 -48.5 -50.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 50 56 56 54 45 49 67 72 79 78 73 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 44 44 45 47 50 50 52 38 27 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 212 214 210 220 227 266 323 408 403 357 293 228 218 200 MB DIV 100 91 87 76 99 79 73 49 33 18 31 23 41 700-850 TADV -16 -11 -7 -10 -9 1 8 27 -10 0 -7 -3 13 LAND (KM) 506 491 458 416 391 407 244 -35 -264 -332 -169 -272 -569 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.4 33.4 35.4 37.7 39.4 40.4 40.9 41.1 42.7 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.4 71.4 72.4 75.1 77.8 78.3 75.9 75.7 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 7 4 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. -6. -17. -25. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -6. -12. -31. -46. -58. -65. -71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)