* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 60 60 58 58 50 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 60 60 58 58 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 64 63 63 57 37 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 33 28 29 27 16 32 31 13 11 19 21 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -4 -4 2 14 5 -1 3 6 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 207 212 214 205 186 154 135 120 50 278 191 125 61 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.4 19.5 16.8 16.5 15.6 14.0 12.5 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 123 122 119 78 71 68 69 68 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 108 105 104 101 71 66 63 65 65 61 59 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -48.6 -46.9 -47.4 -49.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 56 58 60 54 47 58 66 73 77 80 74 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 45 43 43 45 47 48 54 52 36 25 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 225 212 230 230 244 296 360 442 383 337 264 206 168 200 MB DIV 94 69 76 97 90 65 55 101 18 18 23 34 25 700-850 TADV -11 -4 -9 -4 -6 6 -9 29 0 2 0 5 6 LAND (KM) 497 447 426 418 437 403 128 -103 -232 -309 -356 -365 -418 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.4 34.2 36.6 38.9 39.8 40.0 41.2 43.7 45.1 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.8 72.8 72.1 71.4 71.1 73.1 75.8 77.7 77.6 75.1 74.3 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 10 11 12 12 9 5 11 11 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 6. -10. -21. -27. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -15. -38. -53. -64. -72. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/28/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)