* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/28/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 62 62 58 40 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 62 62 58 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 64 62 53 34 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 35 26 21 23 22 29 17 15 15 26 23 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 0 2 6 7 5 0 4 2 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 214 214 195 178 172 138 126 58 307 187 150 96 66 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 24.6 18.1 16.5 15.8 14.8 12.9 10.8 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 122 122 123 103 74 70 67 69 67 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 105 103 104 89 68 65 63 65 65 62 60 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -49.5 -47.7 -47.0 -49.6 -50.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 61 52 44 51 70 72 80 79 82 79 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 43 44 46 46 51 55 41 28 20 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 216 227 221 242 262 323 382 404 357 335 281 232 157 200 MB DIV 64 59 103 100 81 73 57 60 29 36 45 40 17 700-850 TADV 1 -10 -11 -10 -7 -15 34 -19 -11 -21 -2 6 -20 LAND (KM) 449 433 439 436 453 330 71 -142 -290 -361 -474 -534 -496 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.5 33.4 34.4 35.3 37.7 39.8 40.6 40.9 42.3 45.2 47.1 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.8 71.8 71.4 70.9 71.3 73.3 75.7 77.6 77.7 75.8 74.9 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 12 11 9 5 11 13 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 10. -3. -16. -24. -27. -27. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -25. -44. -55. -63. -68. -76. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/28/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/28/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)