* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 65 65 64 47 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 65 65 64 42 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 65 64 60 42 31 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 23 31 18 18 30 14 7 23 30 27 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 0 13 5 7 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 1 12 SHEAR DIR 214 200 190 179 186 142 114 317 220 147 90 36 294 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.9 21.1 17.2 16.4 16.1 14.9 13.0 11.3 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 121 124 124 84 72 68 68 69 67 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 104 105 105 75 66 63 63 65 64 61 60 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.3 -47.7 -46.8 -48.1 -49.8 -49.8 -50.6 -50.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 49 42 44 58 66 77 73 73 80 79 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 46 47 50 51 56 43 30 21 18 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 233 226 236 259 291 372 418 368 316 267 215 178 116 200 MB DIV 63 101 123 95 49 64 72 41 22 13 25 10 1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -25 -4 9 34 -10 -13 0 -1 10 0 -44 LAND (KM) 435 436 461 445 449 194 -63 -177 -249 -306 -508 -552 -514 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.0 33.8 35.0 36.1 38.5 39.6 40.0 40.6 42.2 45.2 46.8 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 72.2 71.3 71.1 70.8 72.5 75.3 76.9 77.3 77.0 76.3 75.6 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 9 5 6 12 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -22. -25. -28. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. -3. -15. -24. -27. -28. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -18. -34. -46. -57. -66. -74. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 2( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)