* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 66 59 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 66 53 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 66 66 58 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 22 13 25 34 11 12 22 24 15 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 5 7 -5 0 0 -3 -5 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 205 196 210 202 168 115 53 277 192 134 98 288 279 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.8 25.4 17.9 16.3 16.0 15.5 14.5 12.9 11.5 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 124 123 110 75 69 67 68 68 65 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 105 104 94 69 64 62 63 64 63 63 64 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -48.9 -47.0 -47.3 -49.3 -50.2 -50.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 46 51 66 76 81 81 81 83 79 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 46 48 47 48 52 52 37 25 19 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 237 243 257 299 325 425 391 359 308 241 180 159 168 200 MB DIV 106 98 81 55 78 57 44 33 33 20 18 21 19 700-850 TADV -4 -12 -5 12 16 -1 -19 0 -2 -6 -4 -29 -36 LAND (KM) 468 465 494 448 362 -4 -205 -257 -229 -323 -553 -482 -263 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.4 39.4 40.2 40.7 41.6 43.1 45.4 46.4 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 71.2 70.5 70.8 71.1 74.5 77.1 77.3 76.4 76.0 76.8 74.9 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 14 14 6 4 7 10 8 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. -9. -21. -28. -30. -32. -32. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. -6. -27. -42. -52. -62. -70. -75. -79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/28/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)