* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 63 63 49 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 63 63 38 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 65 61 38 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 13 21 34 20 1 8 13 16 3 5 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 5 7 5 0 3 0 0 0 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 191 211 219 186 152 93 307 258 151 102 80 272 199 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 26.7 23.7 19.4 16.7 16.1 15.1 14.3 13.4 12.9 12.0 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 122 98 78 70 68 67 66 64 64 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 104 86 72 65 63 63 63 61 61 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -48.4 -47.0 -47.8 -49.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 44 47 56 66 81 82 85 78 78 80 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 45 45 48 54 44 32 22 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 246 255 300 337 386 425 387 336 282 230 200 196 196 200 MB DIV 92 75 57 80 67 81 26 27 25 21 16 10 21 700-850 TADV -11 1 45 79 55 -12 -1 -3 0 7 -4 -15 -46 LAND (KM) 483 460 445 283 120 -122 -228 -282 -382 -443 -396 -279 -178 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.2 36.4 37.7 38.9 39.9 40.6 41.9 43.5 44.6 44.9 45.3 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.9 70.7 72.0 73.2 76.0 76.9 76.9 76.5 75.8 74.9 72.8 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 16 13 9 5 7 7 5 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 5. -1. -12. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -16. -33. -45. -53. -62. -71. -75. -79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/29/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)