* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 77 70 60 41 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 77 55 39 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 72 52 37 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 25 36 28 13 10 12 21 24 13 8 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 3 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 199 163 139 120 65 295 247 174 124 52 311 235 209 SST (C) 25.9 22.2 18.2 16.6 15.9 15.7 14.9 13.7 12.5 11.4 11.7 10.8 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 90 76 72 69 66 67 67 65 62 63 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 81 70 67 64 62 63 64 62 60 61 62 63 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.1 -48.3 -47.5 -47.3 -47.8 -50.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 48 58 63 68 82 83 84 81 83 79 73 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 48 50 56 51 42 30 21 18 16 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 289 334 391 414 428 385 339 291 246 219 202 169 134 200 MB DIV 45 62 51 49 79 31 40 23 27 19 13 1 -4 700-850 TADV 22 16 47 -2 -6 2 -10 -1 -1 -1 -18 -20 -7 LAND (KM) 412 240 68 -53 -177 -230 -309 -378 -476 -437 -316 -250 -166 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.8 38.9 39.5 40.0 40.2 41.2 43.1 45.0 45.8 45.3 45.9 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.9 72.4 73.9 75.4 76.9 77.5 77.6 77.1 76.0 74.8 73.4 71.4 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 14 13 8 3 8 10 8 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 16 CX,CY: -4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -55. -57. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 3. 1. -4. -14. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -10. -20. -39. -55. -63. -72. -82. -88. -90. -90. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)