* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 68 58 47 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 46 35 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 47 35 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 37 26 15 13 12 16 25 15 4 9 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -2 5 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 155 141 115 77 55 284 200 147 101 84 270 233 195 SST (C) 20.1 17.5 16.1 15.8 15.6 14.9 14.0 13.3 12.1 11.2 10.6 9.2 6.7 POT. INT. (KT) 81 74 70 69 67 66 66 65 64 63 64 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 69 66 65 63 63 63 62 61 61 62 62 62 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -48.2 -47.2 -47.3 -47.0 -48.6 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 70 75 79 83 81 83 83 82 75 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 51 54 50 42 35 24 17 17 13 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 341 388 406 418 389 342 309 256 228 187 179 144 69 200 MB DIV 71 49 26 79 65 39 40 30 25 16 11 1 -8 700-850 TADV 25 45 9 -6 -4 0 -13 -6 -5 -36 -23 -39 -22 LAND (KM) 164 22 -112 -193 -285 -347 -339 -426 -479 -425 -307 -240 -34 LAT (DEG N) 38.3 39.1 39.8 40.1 40.3 41.1 42.5 44.0 45.3 46.0 46.2 47.0 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.6 76.0 77.1 78.2 78.3 77.2 76.4 75.8 74.4 72.0 70.0 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 5 6 8 7 6 7 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 24 CX,CY: -19/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -16. -22. -31. -39. -45. -51. -55. -57. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -5. -9. -22. -32. -33. -38. -40. -40. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 27. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -22. -33. -52. -65. -70. -79. -86. -88. -89. -90. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -12.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)