* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 51 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 46 35 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 46 34 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 27 12 8 9 15 24 27 13 2 19 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -6 -6 2 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 135 113 73 59 266 209 154 116 98 192 235 221 204 SST (C) 17.2 16.2 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.1 13.4 12.4 11.4 10.6 9.6 8.2 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 74 71 68 66 66 66 65 64 63 63 64 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 66 64 62 62 63 62 61 61 61 62 63 64 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -47.6 -47.6 -47.5 -47.9 -50.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -51.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 67 70 78 82 82 83 83 81 77 76 81 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 54 49 41 34 31 21 16 14 12 10 9 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 388 397 415 386 387 327 278 240 213 201 182 190 187 200 MB DIV 56 18 71 73 32 38 29 20 10 13 5 7 21 700-850 TADV 36 -6 -10 -5 1 -8 -8 -6 -13 -26 -77 -96 -71 LAND (KM) -8 -120 -226 -271 -315 -333 -410 -437 -399 -351 -281 -155 116 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.0 40.4 40.7 41.0 42.3 43.8 44.9 45.7 46.3 46.8 47.4 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.9 77.2 77.6 77.9 77.3 76.5 75.5 74.3 72.6 70.5 67.1 62.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 7 4 5 7 7 6 6 7 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 18 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -32. -37. -41. -44. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -5. -10. -14. -27. -36. -40. -42. -45. -45. -42. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 27. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -30. -38. -56. -69. -78. -84. -87. -88. -86. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)