* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 40 33 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 39 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 37 36 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 15 10 5 10 15 20 17 1 10 17 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -4 5 17 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 118 75 60 279 285 203 149 101 126 139 190 185 221 SST (C) 15.8 15.4 15.0 14.5 14.1 13.6 12.8 11.4 9.8 8.2 6.5 4.7 5.8 POT. INT. (KT) 70 68 66 66 66 66 65 64 63 63 63 63 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 66 64 63 62 62 63 62 62 61 62 62 N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -47.6 -47.2 -47.2 -47.3 -48.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -51.6 -53.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 78 83 85 84 83 78 75 70 70 72 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 39 32 29 23 16 14 12 9 8 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 391 404 383 374 324 286 241 199 170 168 109 108 142 200 MB DIV 10 84 60 25 29 43 34 20 16 7 4 2 21 700-850 TADV 2 -4 -5 -2 -2 -7 -6 -8 -40 -126 -60 -21 -107 LAND (KM) -173 -250 -333 -377 -406 -438 -510 -489 -472 -297 -102 49 1 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.7 41.0 41.5 42.0 43.5 44.8 46.0 47.3 48.3 49.0 49.6 49.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.3 78.2 78.4 78.5 77.6 76.6 75.4 74.0 72.0 69.4 66.3 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -4. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -5. -9. -14. -24. -31. -34. -38. -39. -38. -38. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -27. -37. -50. -60. -67. -72. -74. -73. -73. -70. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)