* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 36 32 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 43 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 11 13 18 20 14 8 18 19 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -9 -3 8 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 97 52 274 273 210 172 140 149 177 213 207 196 201 SST (C) 15.9 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.6 12.6 11.3 10.4 9.4 8.0 7.7 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 69 67 66 66 66 66 65 64 63 63 63 64 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 65 63 62 62 63 63 62 62 61 62 62 62 63 200 MB T (C) -46.8 -47.2 -48.0 -49.0 -49.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -51.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 81 84 82 80 83 79 78 75 74 79 76 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 29 26 21 19 15 14 12 9 10 11 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 414 379 365 318 311 254 211 193 194 179 173 208 223 200 MB DIV 72 57 23 39 27 27 18 7 13 7 -6 -12 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 1 -2 -5 -1 -13 -26 -103 -95 -51 -64 LAND (KM) -246 -316 -385 -417 -433 -449 -526 -462 -389 -276 -124 -11 133 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -21. -24. -27. -27. -25. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -30. -36. -41. -43. -43. -41. -35. -31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 88.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/30/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)