* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 40 38 37 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 40 38 37 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 37 35 32 29 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 7 10 13 15 22 22 27 32 35 35 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 -1 2 -3 4 3 3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 316 303 282 260 259 250 276 254 249 245 265 269 275 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 139 139 138 136 135 138 143 147 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 65 61 59 57 56 50 51 48 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -5 -7 -10 -13 -16 -17 -6 -8 -2 -10 -6 4 200 MB DIV 10 12 11 30 40 43 50 72 42 26 10 19 -19 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1151 1172 1196 1219 1244 1311 1328 1356 1372 1516 1736 1911 2103 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.3 14.5 13.3 12.6 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.0 117.5 118.1 118.6 119.9 120.3 120.6 120.7 121.8 123.5 125.1 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 4 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 24 26 19 12 8 6 6 6 8 8 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -9. -16. -21. -25. -28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)