* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 27 24 20 17 15 17 16 16 16 18 V (KT) LAND 40 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 37 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 2 11 8 15 18 20 10 17 15 20 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -6 -2 -2 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 45 256 285 225 202 164 147 144 203 209 189 196 222 SST (C) 15.3 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.6 12.6 11.4 10.0 8.2 6.6 5.1 5.0 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 67 66 66 67 67 65 63 63 63 63 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 63 62 63 64 64 62 61 62 61 62 N/A N/A 66 200 MB T (C) -47.3 -47.4 -48.5 -49.2 -49.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.7 -51.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 84 83 80 80 83 78 79 80 78 71 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 20 18 15 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 373 352 310 295 266 223 203 169 163 101 116 180 174 200 MB DIV 48 28 27 32 33 23 23 13 9 2 5 7 23 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 -1 1 -2 1 -14 19 0 -3 -55 -125 LAND (KM) -348 -392 -439 -452 -478 -559 -567 -569 -457 -317 -119 3 -2 LAT (DEG N) 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 8 10 10 8 7 8 9 10 13 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -11. -11. -11. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -23. -24. -24. -24. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 88.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)