* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 47 45 47 43 35 27 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 47 45 47 43 35 27 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 46 46 44 40 36 32 28 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 12 15 18 20 16 25 29 31 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 10 6 2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 312 285 273 261 269 270 295 266 263 264 269 286 271 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 140 139 139 140 141 144 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 63 58 59 56 57 52 48 45 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -9 -14 -20 -13 -19 -10 -11 18 25 36 30 200 MB DIV 22 31 49 57 70 72 73 91 52 33 23 2 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1166 1195 1227 1253 1282 1326 1379 1436 1502 1631 1824 1975 2135 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.5 13.8 12.6 12.0 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.7 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.6 123.9 125.3 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 5 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 26 19 14 11 10 9 8 10 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 7. 3. -5. -13. -19. -24. -28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)