* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 42 38 33 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 42 38 33 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 41 40 36 30 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 16 21 29 31 21 25 33 39 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 4 4 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 264 258 257 257 260 284 289 264 258 262 266 266 263 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 139 139 139 141 143 145 146 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 60 61 61 58 59 56 47 43 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -13 -19 -17 -24 -22 -6 0 18 47 36 11 200 MB DIV 50 76 98 89 70 55 45 81 77 31 18 2 -16 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -10 -5 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1185 1201 1219 1239 1260 1313 1344 1408 1491 1588 1696 1766 1800 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.2 13.2 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.3 117.7 118.1 118.5 119.2 119.7 120.3 120.9 121.7 122.8 123.8 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 27 23 19 17 16 16 16 18 15 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -15. -23. -30. -33. -38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/31/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)