* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/31/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 39 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 39 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 36 32 28 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 17 17 22 27 18 26 25 34 37 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 5 0 -6 8 7 10 1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 292 279 264 265 280 297 273 259 261 246 248 261 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 139 139 139 139 141 142 143 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 63 63 59 60 54 52 42 39 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -19 -22 -19 -17 -16 -8 -4 19 24 47 54 62 200 MB DIV 77 84 81 71 48 73 68 61 60 26 22 18 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 1211 1230 1250 1267 1284 1313 1351 1405 1476 1532 1564 1614 1689 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.6 117.9 118.2 118.5 119.0 119.5 120.1 120.8 121.4 122.0 122.6 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 27 25 23 19 18 18 16 16 14 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -12. -19. -24. -28. -32. -38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/31/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)