* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/31/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 44 42 40 35 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 44 42 40 35 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 44 42 37 32 29 25 22 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 22 25 23 22 27 31 35 40 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 4 1 0 5 10 3 -4 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 253 245 249 270 285 293 270 240 257 268 257 249 239 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 138 138 137 137 139 140 139 139 139 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 61 61 60 58 54 45 45 42 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 14 12 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 -23 -20 -20 -12 -5 4 18 37 39 48 42 200 MB DIV 80 84 66 39 34 33 23 36 37 35 30 42 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 1 2 8 7 LAND (KM) 1222 1231 1241 1255 1269 1299 1299 1337 1391 1403 1384 1378 1389 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.7 117.9 118.2 118.4 118.7 118.7 119.1 119.7 119.9 119.9 120.1 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 27 25 24 24 23 21 20 19 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 2. 0. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -20. -26. -34. -36. -45. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/31/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)