* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 10/31/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 40 37 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 40 37 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 38 33 30 27 24 22 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 21 28 30 16 15 25 28 35 38 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 2 -3 -7 1 9 2 -1 0 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 244 244 267 294 305 297 265 265 263 250 241 235 229 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 139 138 140 141 142 141 141 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 60 63 61 59 62 56 46 42 40 39 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 16 16 15 17 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 -9 -17 -17 -3 5 19 38 53 47 44 27 200 MB DIV 79 81 54 37 59 63 50 -1 45 21 19 26 63 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 4 7 11 12 LAND (KM) 1261 1267 1274 1291 1309 1323 1354 1384 1437 1458 1439 1418 1389 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 117.9 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.7 118.9 119.3 119.9 120.2 120.2 120.6 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 29 28 27 27 25 22 20 20 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 6. 1. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -18. -27. -32. -39. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 10/31/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)