* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 38 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 38 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 35 31 29 26 23 20 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 19 24 25 21 17 23 20 26 39 46 45 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 -1 -3 0 5 6 3 4 -1 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 250 265 296 307 303 287 271 258 240 241 233 226 212 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 139 138 140 140 141 141 143 141 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 61 61 57 52 48 44 41 41 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 -8 -9 -9 0 9 19 42 45 47 35 28 200 MB DIV 76 46 33 60 40 42 38 28 59 21 28 32 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 8 8 LAND (KM) 1291 1304 1318 1329 1340 1371 1402 1432 1453 1458 1434 1409 1375 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.2 118.4 118.6 118.7 118.9 119.1 119.4 119.8 120.2 120.7 121.0 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 13 7 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -20. -27. -35. -42. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)