* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 40 38 34 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 40 38 34 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 36 32 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 22 21 16 15 23 33 32 37 44 52 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 4 11 10 4 4 7 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 292 293 289 284 275 244 245 234 228 226 233 228 229 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 140 139 140 140 140 140 139 135 128 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 55 48 46 44 44 42 41 41 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 15 15 13 14 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -3 4 5 0 14 18 39 29 25 30 1 200 MB DIV 33 32 9 20 14 64 79 45 54 11 23 36 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 2 1 2 4 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 1327 1330 1334 1350 1366 1407 1404 1386 1369 1344 1314 1258 1189 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.6 118.6 118.7 118.9 119.0 119.1 119.3 119.8 120.3 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 24 24 22 22 21 20 15 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -19. -23. -32. -40. -47. -54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)