* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 38 36 32 29 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 18 20 16 14 23 35 32 41 42 49 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 2 6 4 0 5 0 2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 303 295 284 288 274 264 253 246 234 230 232 226 230 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 140 139 139 140 140 141 140 138 135 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 56 52 45 43 45 43 43 42 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 10 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 3 1 -2 6 11 27 20 19 7 -6 -35 200 MB DIV 31 20 21 9 22 68 25 19 17 32 45 56 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 6 6 5 9 LAND (KM) 1370 1382 1394 1410 1427 1433 1423 1396 1370 1329 1283 1249 1236 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.6 118.6 118.7 118.8 118.9 119.0 119.2 119.6 120.4 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 19 20 14 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -15. -19. -26. -33. -41. -46. -53. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)