* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 36 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 36 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 38 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 22 22 25 26 35 33 39 45 46 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 5 7 4 0 5 6 3 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 289 277 276 269 255 253 243 236 230 232 224 229 231 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 139 139 139 140 141 140 139 136 129 119 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 54 51 49 45 44 46 46 43 45 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 10 9 6 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 3 0 3 0 20 21 18 12 21 5 -2 200 MB DIV 23 22 14 41 48 24 47 42 27 45 53 45 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 4 6 5 6 10 LAND (KM) 1352 1365 1378 1386 1394 1392 1380 1362 1344 1308 1267 1236 1242 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.4 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.6 118.8 119.0 119.3 119.7 120.3 121.3 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 3 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 15 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -4. -6. -9. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -22. -32. -39. -48. -52. -58. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)