* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 24 27 28 29 32 37 41 43 53 47 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 5 1 1 7 7 3 3 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 281 282 268 266 266 250 239 232 224 230 233 234 238 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 138 139 140 140 141 141 137 132 125 116 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 50 49 46 41 45 47 45 44 45 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 13 10 9 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 2 2 0 -6 15 15 18 18 13 0 -17 200 MB DIV 7 9 36 37 31 20 31 21 28 28 36 20 16 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 4 5 7 9 13 LAND (KM) 1394 1406 1418 1418 1418 1423 1404 1369 1326 1288 1267 1256 1256 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.8 118.9 119.1 119.4 120.1 121.0 122.0 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 16 16 15 17 17 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -29. -38. -45. -52. -58. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)