* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 24 25 28 28 33 32 36 40 43 41 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 10 6 0 6 6 5 4 1 2 1 6 SHEAR DIR 277 272 255 251 251 235 240 230 230 228 232 227 252 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 141 141 143 143 141 133 128 122 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.3 -55.0 -55.4 -54.8 -55.4 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 49 46 43 43 42 45 47 48 45 42 39 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 -1 -7 -13 3 6 1 -4 -7 -23 -31 -42 200 MB DIV 9 27 35 38 6 24 13 21 42 49 40 21 8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 7 4 LAND (KM) 1402 1418 1433 1448 1463 1466 1471 1461 1424 1411 1413 1430 1443 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 118.6 118.7 118.9 119.0 119.3 119.6 119.9 120.1 120.9 122.0 123.0 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 15 13 12 11 10 11 10 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -26. -33. -40. -46. -55. -58. -59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)