* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 37 34 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 26 27 29 30 30 35 37 45 42 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 3 3 6 6 3 2 -1 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 273 262 254 247 241 233 227 230 233 232 236 243 264 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 141 141 143 143 143 142 138 132 127 123 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 48 46 45 43 43 43 48 45 42 39 35 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -7 -16 -17 -13 6 0 3 0 -6 -20 -31 -39 200 MB DIV 11 17 25 8 12 47 20 27 37 36 11 8 4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 2 4 3 5 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 1466 1481 1495 1506 1516 1527 1516 1494 1464 1463 1514 1563 1592 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.0 119.1 119.3 119.4 119.8 120.1 120.5 120.9 121.9 123.4 124.6 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 8 8 6 8 9 7 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -33. -41. -47. -53. -59. -62. -63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)