* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 33 30 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 35 33 33 34 36 39 42 38 31 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 3 1 6 6 7 SHEAR DIR 259 256 246 235 234 234 229 232 233 241 240 256 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 143 144 144 142 139 136 132 129 126 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 42 42 39 41 40 36 32 28 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 8 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -21 -22 -11 3 0 -1 -8 -26 -38 -45 -51 -42 200 MB DIV 4 2 17 24 33 4 5 25 22 4 5 -4 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 4 6 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 1530 1540 1551 1554 1556 1569 1543 1530 1521 1522 1536 1547 1554 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.8 119.9 120.1 120.2 120.7 121.0 121.5 122.0 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 8 7 7 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -20. -30. -39. -46. -52. -56. -57. -59. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)