* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 39 39 38 37 40 41 45 41 45 42 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 3 6 9 7 9 5 7 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 247 241 243 246 247 241 238 250 255 269 263 279 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 145 143 141 136 131 126 123 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 45 45 45 44 44 41 39 35 32 28 27 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -16 -24 -19 -30 -36 -40 -44 -39 -41 -52 N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 0 10 26 48 18 -4 7 -1 -11 -9 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 3 4 5 7 6 5 5 N/A LAND (KM) 1678 1673 1669 1663 1657 1640 1639 1633 1629 1593 1548 1558 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 121.6 121.7 121.8 121.8 122.1 122.6 123.1 123.8 124.2 124.5 125.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 8 11 12 13 8 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -23. -29. -33. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -28. -40. -49. -54. -58. -60. -62. -63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)