* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 36 34 36 40 41 38 44 50 43 49 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 3 5 5 3 8 7 3 7 4 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 243 244 245 241 240 247 258 267 269 276 278 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 145 145 145 146 143 139 134 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 45 46 42 37 37 35 34 32 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -23 -23 -29 -40 -48 -42 -48 -42 -36 -44 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 23 39 50 25 2 -7 -13 -19 3 -22 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 3 N/A LAND (KM) 1678 1682 1687 1687 1688 1704 1751 1783 1831 1824 1759 1760 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 121.6 121.7 121.9 122.0 122.4 123.1 123.8 124.9 125.6 125.7 126.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -16. -23. -30. -33. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -25. -36. -43. -47. -50. -52. -53. -53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)