* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP172012 11/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 35 35 39 41 42 45 43 44 46 41 48 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 6 5 4 3 9 7 5 8 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 243 244 241 240 242 258 261 271 268 278 269 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 145 145 145 146 145 142 138 133 130 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 44 43 39 35 33 30 30 29 33 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -16 -25 -32 -43 -47 -47 -48 -35 -38 -36 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 21 33 46 34 19 3 1 -9 -14 -2 -30 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 1 3 4 4 6 4 6 6 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1669 1664 1660 1663 1667 1707 1762 1795 1846 1849 1802 1816 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.3 15.3 16.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 121.6 121.7 121.9 122.1 122.7 123.5 124.2 125.3 126.0 126.3 127.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 10 7 1 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -30. -33. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -23. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -35. -42. -47. -50. -52. -54. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172012 ROSA 11/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)