ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. THEREFORE... THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.2N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH NNNN