ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0415 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A BIT TO 45 KT. ERICK IS ALREADY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/8. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ERICK WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF SOME OF THE TYPICALLY BETTER-PERFORMING MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH NNNN