ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 SINCE THE BIG BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. IN FACT... T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT FLOSSIE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE SHEAR MOST LIKELY WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER. MICROWAVE DATA AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE OVERALL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. FLOSSIE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING FLOSSIE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKER FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.3N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.2N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 137.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN